Dinamika Makroekonomi dan Dampaknya terhadap Kemiskinan
Studi Panel Provinsi di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24252/best.v5i1.58999Keywords:
Kesempatan Kerja, Kemiskinan, Model StrukturalAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji determinan utama yang memengaruhi kemiskinan dan kesempatan kerja di Indonesia, dengan menyoroti peran utang luar negeri, investasi, dan jumlah uang beredar. Secara khusus, penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh langsung maupun tidak langsung dari ketiga variabel tersebut terhadap tingkat kemiskinan, melalui mekanisme mediasi inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan kesempatan kerja. Studi ini menggunakan data panel dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia selama periode 1990 hingga 2020. Data dikumpulkan melalui teknik dokumentasi dari berbagai sumber resmi, kemudian dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis model persamaan struktural. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan utang luar negeri secara langsung berdampak pada kenaikan tingkat kemiskinan. Namun demikian, utang luar negeri berpotensi menurunkan kemiskinan apabila dialokasikan secara produktif untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan memperluas kesempatan kerja. Investasi terbukti berkontribusi dalam menurunkan tingkat kemiskinan, baik secara langsung maupun melalui peningkatan kesempatan kerja. Di sisi lain, inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak menunjukkan peran sebagai variabel mediasi yang signifikan dalam hubungan antara investasi dan kemiskinan. Jumlah uang beredar tidak berdampak langsung terhadap kemiskinan, namun berpotensi memberikan efek tidak langsung apabila mampu mengendalikan inflasi, mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan menciptakan lapangan kerja. Temuan ini memberikan implikasi kebijakan penting bagi perumusan strategi pembangunan ekonomi yang lebih inklusif dan pro-pertumbuhan melalui optimalisasi investasi dan pengelolaan utang yang efektif.
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