PENGARUH INFLASI DAN KURS TERHADAP TINGKAT PERSENTASE PENDUDUK MISKIN MELALUI INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA (IPM) DI SUMATERA UTARA TAHUN 2001-2024

Authors

  • Nathania Christy Sembiring Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Joko Suharianto Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Ian Josepan Saragih Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Hottarida Sinaga Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24252/el-iqthisady.v7i2.62194

Abstract

Abstrak

Studi ini menggunakan IPM sebagai variabel mediasi untuk mengkaji pengaruh inflasi dan nilai tukar terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Data deret waktu BPS 2001–2024 digunakan. Baik efek langsung maupun tidak langsung antara variabel ditemukan menggunakan analisis jalur. Temuan menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar dan inflasi memiliki dampak besar pada IPM. Meskipun demikian, nilai tukar dan IPM memiliki dampak besar pada tingkat kemiskinan, sedangkan inflasi memiliki dampak langsung yang dapat diabaikan. IPM, nilai tukar, dan inflasi semuanya memiliki dampak besar pada tingkat kemiskinan Sumatera Utara pada saat yang bersamaan. Hasil ini memvalidasi bahwa hubungan antara kemiskinan dan variabel makroekonomi sebagian dimediasi oleh IPM. Oleh karena itu, untuk mengurangi kemiskinan dan mendorong pembangunan manusia di Sumatera Utara, pemerintah disarankan untuk menegakkan stabilitas ekonomi dan meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat, perawatan kesehatan, dan pendidikan. Kata kunci: Inflasi, Kurs, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Kemiskinan

 

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and exchange rate on the percentage of poor population in North Sumatra Province through the Human Development Index (HDI) as a mediating variable. The data used are time series data from 2001 to 2024 obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The analytical method employed is path analysis, which examines both direct and indirect effects among variables. The results show that inflation and exchange rate significantly affect the HDI. However, the direct effect of inflation on poverty is not significant, while the exchange rate and HDI have a significant impact on poverty levels. Simultaneously, inflation, exchange rate, and HDI significantly influence the poverty rate in North Sumatra. These findings indicate that HDI acts as a partial mediating variable between macroeconomic variables and poverty. Therefore, the government should maintain economic stability and improve the quality of education, health, and community welfare to reduce poverty and strengthen human development in North Sumatra.

Keywords: Inflation, Exchange Rate, Human Development Index, Poverty.

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Published

2025-11-30

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Desember

Section

Volume 7 Nomor 2 Desember 2025

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