PENGARUH KEMISKINAN DAN UPAH MINIMUM PROVINSI TERHADAP PDRB ATAS HARGA KONSTAN: PERAN KONSUMSI RUMAH TANGGA SEBAGAI VARIABEL MEDIASI (STUDI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA TAHUN 2014-2023)

Authors

  • Agnes Monica Sianipar Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Joko Suharianto Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Respa Mellia Sirait Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Enjel Widia Sari Gea Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Sam Deva Nasra Sinulingga Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24252/el-iqthisady.v7i2.64607

Abstract

Abstrak

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh upah minimum provinsi dan kemiskinan terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Selain itu, konsumsi rumah tangga dianggap sebagai variabel mediasi. Pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Data seri waktu sekunder periode 2014–2023 diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Kantor Tenaga Kerja Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Analisis jalur yang digunakan, dan perangkat lunak EViews 12 digunakan untuk melakukan analisis. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa upah minimum provinsi mempunyai dampak positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB dan konsumsi rumah tangga, sedangkan kemiskinan mempunyai dampak negatif dan signifikan terhadap PDB dan konsumsi rumah tangga. Selain itu, ditemukan bahwa konsumsi rumah tangga mempunyai dampak positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB, dan mampu memediasi hubungan antara upah minimum provinsi dan PDRB, tetapi tidak memediasi hubungan antara kemiskinan dan PDRB. Hasil ini menekankan pentingnya kebijakan untuk meningkatkan upah minimum dan memperkuat daya beli masyarakat guna mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi regional yang berkelanjutan.

Kata Kunci: Kemiskinan, Konsumsi Rumah Tangga, Upah Minimum Provinsi, PDRB atas Harga Konstan  

 

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of provincial minimum wages and poverty on Regional Domestic Product (RDP) in North Sumatra Province. In addition, household consumption is considered a mediating variable. A quantitative approach was used in this study. Secondary time series data for the period 2014–2023 were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the North Sumatra Provincial Manpower Office. Path analysis was used, and EViews 12 software was used to perform the analysis. The results show that the provincial minimum wage has a positive and significant impact on GRDP and household consumption, while poverty has a negative and significant impact on GDP and household consumption. In addition, it was found that household consumption has a positive and significant impact on GRDP and is able to mediate the relationship between the provincial minimum wage and GRDP, but does not mediate the relationship between poverty and GRDP. These results emphasize the importance of policies to increase the minimum wage and strengthen people's purchasing power in order to promote sustainable regional economic growth.

Keywords: Poverty, Household Consumption, Provincial Minimum Wage, GRDP at Constant Prices.

Downloads

Published

2026-01-13

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Desember

Section

Volume 7 Nomor 2 Desember 2025

License

Once an article was published in the journal, the author(s) are:

  • to retain copyright and grant to the journal right licensed under Creative Commons License Attribution that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship.
  • permitted to publish their work online in third parties as it can lead wider dissemination of the work, with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal
  • continue to be the copyright owner and allow the journal to publish the article with the CC BY-NC-SA license
  • receiving a DOI (Digital Object Identifier) of the work.