PENGARUH EKSPOR, IMPOR, NILAI TUKAR DAN BI RATE TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24252/iqtishaduna.v7i4.70420Abstract
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh ekspor, impor, nilai tukar, dan BI Rate terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia periode 2010–2024. Cadangan devisa merupakan indikator penting dalam menjaga stabilitas perekonomian nasional, namun perkembangannya yang berfluktuasi serta perbedaan hasil penelitian terdahulu menunjukkan perlunya kajian lebih lanjut. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder triwulanan periode 2010–2024 yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia dan Badan Pusat Statistik. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antarvariabel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang (kointegrasi) antara ekspor, impor, nilai tukar, dan BI Rate terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang, ekspor dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa, sedangkan impor dan BI Rate tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Dalam jangka pendek, hanya nilai tukar yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa. Nilai Error Correction Term (ECT) yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia disarankan untuk meningkatkan kinerja ekspor serta menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar guna memperkuat cadangan devisa Indonesia.
Kata Kunci: BI Rate, Cadangan Devisa, Ekspor,Impor, Nilai Tukar.
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of exports, imports, exchange rates, and the BI Rate on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves during 2010–2024. Foreign exchange reserves play an important role in maintaining economic stability, while their fluctuating trend and inconsistent findings in previous studies justify further investigation. This study uses quarterly secondary data from 2010 to 2024 obtained from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among variables. The results reveal a long-run cointegration relationship between exports, imports, exchange rates, BI Rate, and foreign exchange reserves. In the long run, exports and exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, whereas imports and the BI Rate are insignificant. In the short run, only the exchange rate significantly affects foreign exchange reserves. The negative and significant Error Correction Term (ECT) indicates an adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium. The government and Bank Indonesia are recommended to enhance export performance and maintain exchange rate stability to strengthen Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves.
Keywords: BI Rate, Exchange Rate, Exports, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Imports.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Pitri Magdalena Manik, Siti Hodijah
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