Dampak Faktor Eksternal Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Rossanto Dwi Handoyo, Angga Erlando, Ilham Septiyanto

Abstract


Indonesia adalah salah satu negara yang menggunakan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai indikator kinerja ekonomi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan sangat diharapkan oleh pemerintah Indonesia, sebagai salah satu upaya untuk mencapai kemakmuran bagi masyarakat Indonesia. Studi ini mencoba melihat pengaruh impor, pengiriman uang (remiten), foreign direct investment (FDI), dan harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Estimasi yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method, dan digunakan untuk melihat efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel impor secara signifikan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Sementara itu, variabel FDI memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Variabel remitansi memiliki hubungan negatif, tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek, selain itu remitansi juga memiliki pengaruh positif, tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek variabel harga minyak dunia (world oil price) berpengaruh secara signifikan negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Rekomendasi yang diberikan, diantaranya perlunya perbaikan dan pengembangan tata kelola pada sektor migas untuk mengurangi ketergantungan impor migas, mendorong model proyek yang dapat mendorong timbulnya kegiatan ekonomi baru, memuculkan kepastian hukum yang jelas dan terpercaya kepada investor khusunya dari asing, dan perlunya pengelolaan remiten yang berorientasi pada pemunculan usaha produktif dengan potofolio manjemen keuangan rumah tangga untuk masa depan.

 

Kata Kunci:  Foreign Direct Investment; Impor; Pertumbuhan Ekonomi; Remitansi; World Oil Price


References


Adams, S., 2009. Can foreign direct investment (FDI) help to promote growth in

Africa?. African Journal of Business Management, 3 (5), p.178.

Adams, R. H., & Cuecuecha, A. 2010. Remittances, household expenditure and investment in Guatemala. World Development, 38(11), 1626-1641.

Ahmed MS. 2010. Migrant Workers Remittances and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh. ASA University Review. 4(1), 1-13.

Aktar, S.T.İ., Taban, S. And Aktar, İ., 2008. An empirical examination of the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3(11), pp.1535-1551.

Appleyard, D., Field, A., & Cobb, S. 2006. International Economics. 5th Edition. New York. Mc Graw

Azman-Saini, W. N. W., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Law, S. H. 2010. Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence. Economic Modelling, 27(5), 1079-1089.

Azoulay, P., Jones, B.F., Kim, J.D. and Miranda, J., 2020. Age and high-growth entrepreneurship. American Economic Review: Insights, 2(1), 65-82.

Barajas, A. Chami, R. Fullemkamp, C. Gapen, M. Montiel, P. 2009. Do Workers Remittances Promote Economic Growth?. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper No. 09/153, IMF

Belmimoun, A., Kerbouche, M., Adouka, L., & Mokeddem, R. 2014. the impact of migrants’remittances on economic growth empirical study: case of algeria (1970-2010). European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 10 (13).

Boldeanu, F. T., & Constantinescu, L. 2015. The main determinants affecting economic growth. Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov. Economic Sciences. Series V, 8(2), 329.

Carbaugh, R. 2015. International Economics. 15/E. Boston. Cengange Learning.

Carbaugh, R. and Prante, T., 2010. The Temptation for Protectionism and American Trade Policy. World Economics, 11(3), 61-78.

Chakraborty, C. and Nunnenkamp, P., 2008. Economic reforms, FDI, and economic growth in India: a sector level analysis. World development, 36(7), 1192-1212.

Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C. and Jahjah, S., 2005. Are immigrant remittance flows a source of capital for development?. IMF Staff papers, 52(1), 55-81.

Chenaf, Dalila Nicet & Rougier, Eric. 2008. FDI, Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Assessment for MENA Countries. Gretha CNRS (2008).

Chirwa, T. G., & Odhiambo, N. M. 2016. Macroeconomic determinants of economic growth: a review of international literature. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 11(2),33-47.

Cologni, A and M. Manera. 2008. Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries. Energy Economics (30), 856–888.

Doğrul, H. G. and U. Soytas. 2010. Relationship between Oil Prices, Interest Rate, and Unemployment: Evidence from an Emerging Market. Energy Economics (32), 1523–1528.

Dornbusch, R., 2001. Fewer monies, better monies. American Economic Review, 91(2), 238-242.

Esfahani, H.S., 1991. Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries. Journal of Development Economics, 35 (1), 93-116.

Hagbe JB. 2004. A Theory of Workers’ Remittances with an Application to Morocco. International Monetary Fund Working Paper 04/194

Handley, K., Kamal, F. and Monarch, R., 2020. Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism (No. w26611). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Har, W.M., Teo, K.L. and Yee, K.M., 2008. FDI and economic growth relationship: An empirical study on Malaysia. International Business Research, 1(2), 11-18.

Hendrix, C.S., 2019. Kicking a crude habit: diversifying away from oil and gas in the twenty-first century. International Review of Applied Economics, 33(2), 188-208.

Inekwe, J.N., 2013. FDI, employment and economic growth in Nigeria. African Development Review, 25(4), 421-433.

Jawaid ST, Raza SA. 2012. Workers’ Remittances and Economic growth in China and Korea: an Empirical Analysis. MPRA Paper no. 39003, posted 24.

Iamsiraroj, S., 2016. The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus. International Review of Economics & Finance, 42, 116-133.

Lardic, S., V. Mignon. (2006). The Impact of Oil Prices on GDP in European Countries: An Empirical Investigation Based on Asymmetric Cointegration. Energy Policy, 34 (18), 3910–3915.

Lee, C.G., 2010. Outward foreign direct investment and economic growth: Evidence from Japan. Global Economic Review, 39(3), 317-326.

Krugman, P., M.Obstfeld, and M.J. Melitz. 2012. International Economics: Theory and Policy 9 th Edition. United States of America: Pearson Addison-Wesley.

Makun, K. K. 2018. Imports, remittances, direct foreign investment and economic growth in Republic of the Fiji Islands: An empirical analysis using ARDL approach. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 39(3), 439-447.

Mankiw, Gregory. 2009. Principles Of Microeconomics 4th Edition. Kanada: SouthWestern Cengage Learning.

Maswana, J.C., 2020. African Economies in the Shadow of China: Effects of Bilateral Trade Structure on Economic Growth in Africa. Foreign Trade Review, 55(1), 80-92.

Meyer, D., & Shera, A. 2017. The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model. Economia, 18(2), 147-155.

Nizar, M. A. 2012. Dampak fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 6(2), 189-210.

Peters, S., 2020. Human Capital Formation and Inclusive Growth through Infrastructure. World Scientific Book Chapters, 153-181.

Shafi, K. and Liu, H., 2014. Oil prices fluctuations and its impact on Russian’s economy; An exchange rate exposure. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 2(4), 169-177.

Sutradhar, S.R., 2020. The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 14(1), 275-295.

Tabit, S. and Moussir, C.E., 2016. Macroeconomic determinants of migrants’ remittances: evidence from a panel of developing countries. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 6(7), 1-11.

Tiwari, A.K. and Mutascu, M., 2011. Economic growth and FDI in Asia: A panel-data approach. Economic analysis and policy, 41(2), 173-187.

Todaro, Michael P. dan Stephen C. Smith. 2004. Pembangunan Ekonomi di Dunia Ketiga, Edisi kedelapan. Jakarta. Erlangga

Tong, Q. and Qiu, F. 2020. Population growth and land development: Investigating the bi-directional interactions. Ecological Economics, 169, 106505.

Tremblay, R., 1990. The “export-import” effect and economic growth. North American Review of Economics and Finance, 1(2), 241-252.

Wan, X., 2010. A literature review on the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. International Business Research, 3(1), p.52.

Yanikkaya, H., 2003. Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development economics, 72(1), 57-89.

Zahonogo, P., 2016. Trade and economic growth in developing countries: Evidence from

sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Trade, 3 (1-2), 41-5.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v7i1.13382

EcceS: Economics, Social, and Development Studies is indexed by:

            

In collaboration With:

 ISSN Online : 2580-5770

ISSN Printed : 2407-6635


Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis,

UIN Alauddin Makassar

Jl.H.M.Yasin Limpo No. 36 Samata, Gowa, Sulawesi Selatan

Phone (WA): 085255779975

Email: ecces@uin-alauddin.ac.id

==================================


Jurnal Ecces is licensed under a  Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

View My Stats