Transformation of Labor Productivity in Bali; Identification of Post-Pandemic Strategic Policies Using the MULTIPOL Approach

Abstract

Bali is one of the regions in Indonesia most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic due to its economy being heavily reliant on the tourism sector. As part of efforts to accelerate economic recovery and take preventive measures against future shocks, the government has been striving for economic transformation. This study contributes a novel perspective by anticipating future socio-economic disruptions through proactive labor policies. However, the main challenge faced is the low labor productivity, which remains a crucial issue for the long-term sustainability of Bali's economy. This study aims to develop strategies for improving labor productivity using a prospective-MULTIPOL analysis approach. Data for the MULTIPOL analysis were collected through Focus Group Discussions involving representatives from government agencies, labor associations, and academia. The MULTIPOL analysis reveals three main scenarios: government intervention, human resource intervention, and investment optimization. The key findings indicate that education policies, particularly up-skilling and re-skilling programs, are essential for improving labor productivity and facilitating the transition to a middle-class workforce. Additionally, improving labor market access and optimizing investments in infrastructure and technology are necessary to support the region's labor market. The practical implications include guiding policymakers in designing resilient workforce strategies during crisis recovery. By incorporating participatory foresight into policy design, it advances the global discourse on creating resilient and inclusive labor systems capable of withstanding socio-economic disruptions. The methodology bridges long-term scenario analysis with actionable policy measures, offering a valuable model for sustainable workforce development worldwide.