Determinants of Rural Poverty in Indonesia: A Provincial Spline Regression Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v12i2.62125Keywords:
Rural Poverty; Indonesian Countries; Spline RegressionAbstract
This study analyzes the determinants of rural poverty in Indonesia using a nonparametric Spline regression approach. The analysis utilizes cross-sectoral secondary data from 37 provinces in Indonesia for the year 2024, with rural poverty as the dependent variable and five independent variables: village fund allocation, agricultural sector growth, land-use conversion, migration, and unemployment. Testing of data quality and model assumptions confirms that the Spline model effectively captures the nonlinear relationship between variables. The results show that village fund allocation and higher agricultural sector growth significantly reduce rural poverty. These results indicate the importance of implementing fiscal decentralization and agrarian revitalization policies in Indonesia. Conversely, land-use conversion and unemployment tend to exacerbate poverty levels, while migration shows a mitigating effect under certain conditions. These findings confirm the multidimensional and regionally heterogeneous nature of rural poverty in Indonesia. This study provides empirical evidence that policy interventions focused on sustainable land management, job creation, and efficient utilization of village funds can substantially improve rural community welfare and economic resilience.
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