Industry Economic Determinants of Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil Exports: Evidence from the Moment Quantile Regression Approach
Keywords:
Crude palm oil, Indonesia's exports, Importing countries, Moment Panel QuantileAbstract
The rising global demand for crude palm oil (CPO) has strengthened Indonesia’s role as a major exporter, yet its export performance remains heterogeneous across importing countries. This study examines how economic, demographic, environmental, institutional, and spatial factors in partner countries influence Indonesia’s CPO exports across different export levels. Using panel data from 40 importing countries in Asia, the Pacific, and Africa, this research applies a moment quantile regression approach to capture distributional heterogeneity. The results show that population size and Free Trade Agreements consistently have positive and significant effects across quantiles, while land use change and geographical distance negatively affect exports. Gross domestic product and CO₂ emissions exhibit conditional effects, becoming more influential at higher export levels. These findings confirm that export determinants vary across trade intensity levels rather than being uniform. The study highlights the importance of external demand conditions and institutional frameworks in shaping Indonesia’s CPO export performance, implying the need for targeted trade policies, sustainable production practices, and improved logistics to enhance competitiveness in global markets.
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