Penggunaan dan Pengembangan Model Epidemi Sir pada Penyebaran Penyakit Tuberkulosis di Sulawesi Selatan

Authors

  • Muhammad Rais Ridwan STKIP YPUP MAKASSAR
  • Abdul Hadi STKIP YPUP Makassar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v7i2.11548

Abstract

Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis data deskriptif sebagai tahap awal yang berdasarkan data jumlah penduduk Sulawesi Selatan dan jumlah individu yang terinfeksi penyakit Tuberkulosis tahun 2016 dan 2017. Tahap kedua, menentukan asumsi-asumsi sehingga dibentuk model penyebaran penyakit Tuberkulosis, yakni model epidemi SIR dengan titik ekuilibrium  Tahap ketiga, menentukan nilai eigen matriks Jacobi diperoleh di titik (S,I)=(1563,172072437) dengan sifat kestabilan, stabil asimtotik dengan nilai – nilai eigen -0.05 dan -5506,27  Selanjutnya, diperoleh bilangan reproduksi dasar, yakni R0= 275,404 yang menunjukkan bahwa satu individu yang terinfeksi, rata-rata dapat menularkan kepada 275 hingga 276 jiwa individu rentan terhadap penyakit Tuberkulosis. Tahap terakhir, berdasarkan data hasil penularan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa penyakit Tuberkulosis di Sulawesi Selatan akan bersifat endemik dalam kurun waktu 100 tahun akan datang. Interpretasi berdasarkan simulasi numerik menggunakan software Maple dan Matlab juga menunjukkan bersifat endemik dengan melihat perilaku solusi penyelesaian dan  untuk kurun waktu  yang relatif lama.

Author Biographies

Muhammad Rais Ridwan, STKIP YPUP MAKASSAR

Dosen dipekerjakan (dpk) LLDIKTI Wilayah IX Sulawesi dan Gorontalo pada STKIP YPUP Makassar

Abdul Hadi, STKIP YPUP Makassar

Pendidikan Matematika

References

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Published

2020-01-23

How to Cite

[1]
M. R. Ridwan and A. Hadi, “Penggunaan dan Pengembangan Model Epidemi Sir pada Penyebaran Penyakit Tuberkulosis di Sulawesi Selatan”, MSA, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 37–44, Jan. 2020.

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 2 (2019)

Section

Artikel

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