Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Data Inflasi Bulanan Tahun 2021

Authors

  • Dwi Retno Puspita Sari Institut Agama Islam Negeri (IAIN) Metro

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v10i2.27272

Abstract

Inflasi merupakan salah satu komponen yang memberikan pengaruh besar dalam kemajuan ekonomi suaru negara. Hal tersebut dikarenakan inflasi dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan perekonomian negara, kesempatan kerja, distribusi pendapatan dan nilai defisit neraca ekonomi. Pada metode time series, peramalan data dilakukan dengan menggunakan data-data yang telah lampau. Biasanya data yang digunakan merupakan kumpulan data yang berkaitan dengan waktu, seperti harian, mingguan, bulanan atau tahunan. Terdapat banyak metode yang dapat digunakan dalam melakukan peramalan data, seperti metode Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, dan proyeksi Trend. Pada data dengan pola trend, maka metode yang dapat digunakan salah satunya adalah Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt. Hasil peramalan dengan menggunakan data inflasi bulan Januari sampai Desember tahun 2021 dengan metode double exponential smoothing untuk lima periode ke depan memiliki nilai sebesar 1,78%, 1,83%, 1,87%, 1,91%, dan 1,96% dengan nilai MAPE, MAD, dan MSD berturut sebesar 5,18, 0,08 dan 0,013.

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Published

2022-11-09

How to Cite

[1]
Dwi Retno Puspita Sari, “Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Data Inflasi Bulanan Tahun 2021”, MSA, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 26–31, Nov. 2022.

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 2 (2022): VOLUME 10 NOMOR 2 TAHUN 2022

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Artikel

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