Perbandingan Metode Dekomposisi dan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter’s untuk Peramalan Wisatawan Grand Watu Dodol Banyuwangi

Authors

  • Rahmani Diagustiningtyas Universitas PGRI Banyuwangi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v13i1.50912

Keywords:

Dekomposisi, Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter’s, Peramalan (Forecasting), Time Series, Grand Watu Dodol Banyuwangi

Abstract

Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk membandingkan metode dekomposisi dan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter’s dalam peramalan jumlah wisatawan di Grand Watu Dodol Banyuwangi. Tujuan khususnya adalah menentukan hasil peramalan paling akurat diantara kedua metode tersebut dari data jumlah wisatawan Grand Watu Dodol Banyuwangi bulan Januari tahun 2018 hingga bulan Desember tahun 2023. Keakuratan ramalan diukur dengan menggunakan Mean Squared Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dilihat dari nilai akurasi kesalahan yang paling rendah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter’s menghasilkan ramalan dengan nilai akurasi kesalahan yang lebih rendah dibandingkan metode dekomposisi, sehingga lebih tepat digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah wisatawan di Grand Watu Dodol, Banyuwangi. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat digunakan dalam meramalkan jumlah wisatawan di lokasi wisata lain di Banyuwangi khususnya atau di wilayah lain.

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Published

2025-06-03

How to Cite

[1]
R. Diagustiningtyas, “Perbandingan Metode Dekomposisi dan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter’s untuk Peramalan Wisatawan Grand Watu Dodol Banyuwangi”, MSA, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 83–91, Jun. 2025.

Issue

Vol. 13 No. 1 (2025): VOLUME 13 NO 1 TAHUN 2025

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