PEMODELAN BEBAN PUNCAK ENERGI LISTRIK MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GJR-GARCH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v6i1.5123Abstract
Energi listrik adalah salah satu kebutuhan pokok yang memiliki peranan yang sangat penting dalam kehidupan. Kebutuhan akan energi listrik tidak bisa terlepas dari kehidupan baik itu untuk kebutuhan rumah tangga, industri, maupun pemerintahan.setiap harinya konsumsi listrik pada waktu tertentu akan mengalami puncak pemakaian, sehingga dipandang perlu untuk mengetahui model peramalan beban puncak listrik sebagai bahan pertimbangan bagi pengambil kebijakan untuk menstabilkan sistem energi listrik khususnya di daerah Makassar oleh PT PLN (Persero) Wilayah SULSELRABAR. Untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan tersebut, dalam penelitian ini GJR-GARCH dianggap cocok untuk mengetahui model peramalan beban puncak energi listrik. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian maka diperoleh beberapa model yang digunakan dalam proses peramalan ini yaitu model ARIMA (1,1,1) dan model GJR-GARCH (1,1).
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