Negative Binomial Regression Modeling of HIV/AIDS Cases in West Java Province

Authors

  • BQ. Nurkhalishah K Universitas Negeri Makassar
  • Aswi Aswi Universitas Negeri Makassar
  • Wahidah Sanusi Universitas Negeri Makassar
  • Nur Salsabila Wero Universitas Negeri Makassar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v14i2.70138

Keywords:

HIV/AIDS, Negative Binomial Regression, Overdispersion, Generalized Linear Model

Abstract

HIV/AIDS remains a public health problem in Indonesia, including in West Java Province, which has a relatively high number of cases with varying characteristics between regions. This study aims to model the factors influencing the number of HIV/AIDS cases in West Java Province using Negative Binomial Regression. The study uses a quantitative approach with a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) based on secondary data obtained from the West Java Provincial Health Profile and the Central Statistics Agency in 2024. The response variable used is the number of HIV/AIDS cases, while the predictor variables include population density, the percentage of poor people, and the unemployment rate. The analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics, multicollinearity tests using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), Poisson regression modeling, overdispersion testing, Negative Binomial Regression modeling, and selecting the best model using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The results showed that the data experienced overdispersion, so the Negative Binomial Regression model was more appropriate than Poisson regression. The best model was obtained based on an AIC value of 301.5577 and a BIC of 305.4452. The analysis also showed that the unemployment rate significantly influenced the number of HIV/AIDS cases, while population density and the percentage of poor people did not. Thus, Negative Binomial Regression is an appropriate method for modeling overdispersed census data and can be used as a basis for supporting the development of more effective HIV/AIDS control policies.

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Published

2026-10-31

How to Cite

[1]
B. N. K, A. Aswi, W. Sanusi, and N. S. Wero, “Negative Binomial Regression Modeling of HIV/AIDS Cases in West Java Province”, MSA, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 248–257, Oct. 2026.

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026): Volume 14 No 2, 2026

Section

Artikel

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