SIMULASI MODEL SVIR (SUSCEPTIBLE, VACCINATED, INFECTED, RECOVERED) PADA KASUS COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v10i2.33657Keywords:
Covid-19, Model Epidemiologi SVIR, Analisis Kestabilan, Titik Ekuilibrium, Bilangan Reproduksi DasarAbstract
Penelitian ini membahas tentang model epidemiologi SVIR pada penyebaran Covid-19 di Sulawesi Selatan. Adapun tujuan dari penelitian yaitu untuk mengetahui simulasi model penyebaran penyakit Covid-19 dan mengetahui analisis kestabilan pada titik - titik ekuilibrium, serta nilai reproduksi dasar dari penyebaran penyakit Covid-19. Data yang digunakan berasal dari Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh model matematika SVIR penyakit yang terdiri atas empat persamaan diferensial yang memberikan representasi mengenai laju peningkatan dan penurunan dari setiap kelompok populasi, berdasarkan analisis tersebut dari nilai titik ekuilibrium bersifat stabil dan bilangan reproduksi dasar diperoleh R_0=0,232212 yang berarti nilai R0 < 1 menunjukkan bahwa penyakit Covid-19 terus berkurang diikuti dengan penurunan pertumbuhan jumlah kasus.
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